Quantum-like models cannot account for the conjunction fallacy
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چکیده
منابع مشابه
Quantum-like models cannot account for the conjunction fallacy
Human agents happen to judge that a conjunction of two terms is more probable than one of the terms, in contradiction with the rules of classical probabilities—this is the conjunction fallacy. One of the most discussed accounts of this fallacy is currently the quantum-like explanation, which relies on models exploiting the mathematics of quantum mechanics. The aim of this paper is to investigat...
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It is easy to construct pairs of sentences X, Y that lead many people to ascribe higher probability to the conjunction X-and-Y than to the conjuncts X, Y. Whether an error is thereby committed depends on reasoners’ interpretation of the expressions “probability” and “and.” We report two experiments designed to clarify the normative status of typical responses to conjunction problems. © 2004 Cog...
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In the present article we show that the predictions of quantum mechanics lead to violations of Bayes' rule when considering the probability of the conjunction of two events. Quite interestingly, a similar effect of conjunction fallacy is well known and experimentally tested in cognitive science as a cognitive heuristic, which occurs for intuitive judgments in situations of bounded rationality. ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Theory and Decision
سال: 2016
ISSN: 0040-5833,1573-7187
DOI: 10.1007/s11238-016-9549-9